Why Tinubu Wants Kwankwaso In His Political Fold: A Strategic Alliance For Power,2027 Calculations,And The Battle For Kano

By Shamsudeen Ibrahim

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not just governing he’s scheming, realigning, and actively consolidating power for the long haul. One of the boldest signs of this strategy is his persistent effort to bring Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso into his political fold. Far beyond just inclusion, this is a high-stakes move to lock in the North particularly Kano State and pre-empt any credible opposition in the lead-up to the 2027 elections.

Why Kwankwaso? Simple: the former Kano governor is a kingmaker in his own right. He commands a massive grassroots following through the Kwankwasiyya movement and has the capacity to deliver Kano a state that holds the key to presidential victory, given its massive voting population.

With Tinubu already enjoying incumbency and federal control, adding Kwankwaso to his camp would effectively neutralize one of the North’s most formidable independent political forces.

Now, let’s talk realpolitik: if Tinubu succeeds in bringing Kwankwaso under the APC umbrella, he will have assembled an unprecedented political trinity in Kano.

Ganduje a former governor with his own loyal base is already APC national chairman.

Barau Jibrin, another heavyweight from the state, currently sits as Deputy Senate President.

Add Kwankwaso to this equation, and Tinubu would have brought every major Kano political powerbroker under one umbrella.

This isn’t just consolidation it’s full-scale domination.

That means any future opposition would struggle to form strong political alliances in Kano. If anything, their only hope would be to penetrate through protest votes, not through structured political machinery.

And protest votes, while powerful in moments of national frustration, are often scattered, unpredictable, and rarely sufficient to unseat an incumbent backed by a strong political coalition and state machinery.

Tinubu’s move also reveals a clear shift in his political calculations. Initially, it appeared his strategy was to focus mainly on consolidating the North Central areas like Kogi, Niger, Kwara, Benue and parts of Plateau.

But the focus on bringing Kwankwaso in shows an expansion beyond that, he now aims for a full-scale northern stronghold.
This shift, however, subtly contrasts with the mood of ongoing opposition coalition talks, particularly those among PDP, LP, and SDP factions who are testing waters for a united front against the APC in 2027.

But here’s the reality check: Tinubu’s success in 2027 will not hinge solely on political alliances or defections.

His victory will largely depend on three key conditions:

●Economic Realities Must Change: Nigerians are facing serious hardship from inflation to forex instability and fuel subsidy removal pains. No matter how strong a political coalition is, no incumbent survives the ballot if daily living gets worse. If Tinubu doesn’t improve the economy, all his political engineering might fall flat in the eyes of the suffering electorate.

●Coalitions Must Fail: The biggest threat to Tinubu isn’t any single party it’s a unified opposition. If PDP, NNPP, LP, SDP and other anti-APC forces unite around a single credible candidate, 2027 becomes a much tougher terrain. Tinubu’s ongoing alliance-building is a proactive attempt to fracture any such possibility.

●Security Must Improve Nationwide: Insecurity remains a deep concern in Nigeria. From banditry and insurgency in the North to kidnappings in the South and other vices of ritualists and cultists, this is one issue that unites public sentiment. If Tinubu can’t stabilize security, even his northern alliances might not save him from widespread backlash.

So yes, Tinubu is playing chess, not checkers. His political instincts remain sharp: neutralize rivals, co-opt power blocs, and build a fortress in the North.

But this strategy alone won’t win 2027.

He needs results economic relief, national security, and a divided opposition.

Without these, even a fully capture Kano might not be enough to guarantee re-election.

The battle for 2027 is already underway, and Tinubu is building his army. Kwankwaso may very well be the next major piece on his board.

But the final outcome will be shaped not just in boardrooms or alliances but in the hearts, pockets, and fears of ordinary Nigerians.